Although the election is still months away, mainstream media polls predict Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump.
The media has made much of these polls, ignoring the overall enthusiasm of Trump’s supporters—and the shocking lack of excitement felt by Democrats for Biden.
But there is one election model that is getting very little attention. It has been right on every election since 1912 (with two exceptions). And this model just gave Trump some interested chances for this election:
Established in 1996 by Stony Brook University political science professor Helmut Norpoth, the Primary Model correctly picked the victors in multiple presidential elections — including the last one…
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning in November. This model has picked the winner in all but two elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced, including, of course, Trump’s victory in 2016,” Mr. Norpoth tells Inside the Beltway in a statement.
Norporth’s model is based on determining general election results based on primary election turnouts. He asserts that we can predict who will win in November, based on how many voters were willing to come out earlier in the year to vote for their party’s nominee.
Using this method, Norporth predicted that Trump had an 87% chance of beating Hillary Clinton. He said this on March 7, 2016, months before the historic election. At the same time, mainstream media polls were predicting an easy victory for the former first lady.
In addition, Norporth points to the significant turnout of primary voters for Trump this year. Normally, primary voter turnout for an incumbent is low—because the candidate’s nomination is considered a foregone conclusion. But before the lockdowns, Trump was breaking records with millions of voters coming out to nominate him across the country.
Joe Biden, by comparison, was not able to muster the same kind of support. Even with the nomination all but assured, Biden continues to struggle to get his base enthusiastic for his election.
- An election model is predicting a 91% chance of a Trump victory.
- The Norporth model looks at primary voter turnout from earlier in an election year.
- Primary voters for Trump have broken records earlier in 2020.
Source: Washington Times