What’s Happening:
Things just got a little more dicey for some of the contenders in the 2024 presidential election race. Expectations are for strong performances in the early primaries to help weed out the candidate pool as early as possible.
New Hampshire is traditionally a bellwether indicator of who can keep their campaign moving forward. Early poll numbers revealed unexpected results this week as one candidate surged ahead of a leading contender trying to catch frontrunner former President Donald Trump.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis lost his edge in the early poll to former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley who surged in early polling.
From the Washington Examiner:
In a new USA TODAY/Boston Globe/Suffolk University survey, Haley shot to 19% among likely Republican primary voters, passing DeSantis who fell to 10%.
As noted, both still have a long way to go to close the gap on Trump’s significant lead. He tallied 49% of the likely votes in the poll. All other candidates only reached single digits in the Granite State survey.
DeSantis has struggled in recent weeks to maintain momentum early in the race. His slipping poll numbers nationally and in some key states have people looking at other non-Trump candidates. Haley has gained high marks in the first two GOP debates and has developed an upward trend in the polls.
The New Hampshire poll revealed voters aren’t all convinced that Trump will be the inevitable nominee for the Republican Party. That issue was split 48% to 44% with Trump polling slightly as the likely candidate. The poll also showed that almost 40% of likely voters said their minds could still be changed on their candidate choice.
The poll appears to be a good sign for Haley early on, according to Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos. He said this may lead to “more money, credibility, and interviews” finding their way to Haley. This may also, Paleologos said, spur conversations about others dropping out quicker and backing Haley’s challenge to Trump.
Something hidden within the poll is Trump’s influence in the race even as the second choice among voters. Paleologos noted that people who choose to switch their support may switch to Trump and not necessarily to Haley. Adding in second-choice votes among all the other major candidates, he said, and Trump sits in the lead at 55%.
Haley, the former South Carolina governor, shined in the recent debates and she has worked hard on the campaign trail in her home state along with Iowa and New Hampshire. A recent CNN poll indicated that she may have the best chance among Republicans to beat Joe Biden as his poll numbers have stagnated due to inflation, the crisis at the southern border, and concerns about his age.
It’s still too early to call for a definite winner for the GOP nomination. Trump faces various legal challenges that force him to spend time in court defending against charges. As the race builds momentum into next year, there could still be some unexpected twists and turns for Republican candidates.
Key Takeaways:
- Field of Republican candidates gets shuffled in New Hampshire.
- Haley surges past DeSantis as the GOP pool tries to catch Trump.
- Hidden stats show that GOP contenders will likely fall short in primary.
Source: Washington Examiner
